A Dynamic Demand-Supply Model for Elementary School Teachers in Taiwan

The Ministry of Education needs to exercise long-term planning and control over teacher human resources. Teacher education policies determine teacher quality and affect the quality of education, which in turn weakens the national competitive edge. If teacher education policies change, a series of dynamic effects takes place. The supply and demand for Taiwan elementary school teachers in particular, while being governed by other factors such as teacher education policies, government budgets, education reform, and birthrates, is contingent on the long-term planning and stability of teacher labor force, and is therefore a problem worthy of investigation. This study analyzes the history of teacher education, birthrates, and the excess supply of elementary school teachers. System dynamics is used as a methodology, proceeding from the perspective of system thinking to investigating the structure of the Taiwan elementary school teacher demand-supply system. A dynamic model is presented to explicate how the system operates. The System Dynamics model is also used to implement trend simulation for government policy making. The implications of this model are also discussed.